By Lou Quinto
Executive Coach and Speaker
One of the advantages of the information age we live in is that data is relatively easy to obtain. (Thank you Google, Bing and the corps of other popular search engines!) This is good, right? Of course it is… Unless you’re trying to solve problems, make decisions or create business strategies. The problem is there is so much data that it clouds our abilities to efficiently resolve these tasks and we find ourselves drowning in a sea of data. Then we have a dilemma; Which data is the best data to use?
I come across this problem a lot when I’m working with clients and facilitating them through the tasks of solving problems, making decisions and developing strategy. As soon as a problem is identified we begin a scavenger hunt of sorts by collecting data. Now, if you’re the type of person that I fondly refer to as a “data bather,” you can spend an extraordinary amount of time gathering data — both relevant and irrelevant. But how do you know which is the best data to help you in your pursuit of a solution to the problem? Simple, apply a “data sieve” called the “Hierarchy of Information.”
Like a prospector mining for gold on the bank of a river, you can apply the Hierarchy of Information to retain the “gold nuggets” of information to help you achieve the maximum level of accuracy in your solution, decision or strategy.
There are four levels in the Hierarchy of Information. They are:
Facts
Facts are truths. This is information that can be proven. If you use 100% facts in your problem solving, decision making or strategizing you will be as accurate as possible. Seldom do we use 100% facts.
Inferences
Inferences are conclusions that you arrive at using a mixture of some facts that interfaces with your personal experience and knowledge – business acumen. Inferences, unfortunately, can be misleading as we sometimes draw a wrong conclusion. For instance, if a man shows up in your office and he is wearing a raincoat, carrying an umbrella and is wet, what might you infer? It’s raining! From just three facts (raincoat, umbrella and wet) and your past experiences, your inference might be spot on. On the other hand, you might also be dead wrong. Think about it. What else could have happened to that man which caused him to be wet? Perhaps a sprinkler system kicked on as he was walking from his car to the building… Or a landscaper was watering some new plantings and accidently soaked him. The opportunity for error by using inferences increases because we may seize upon the most likely inference and run with it, thus, jeopardizing our accuracy.
Assumptions
We all know the old adage about when we assume… Let me just say, it makes you and me… look bad. There is a reason why this saying rings true. When we don’t have facts available we have a tendency to just use our past experiences and knowledge about similar problems, decision or strategies. This is the basis for most assumptions and we feel comfortable using them because somewhere in our life we saw success in this type of situation. However, what worked last month might not work this month because the circumstances surrounding this situation have changed and we have not considered the new data. When using assumptions we are quickly approaching the bottom level of our accuracy potential.
Guesses
By using guesses we have now hit the basement level in our quest to be accurate in our problem solving, decision making and strategizing. So why do we use guesses? Easy…. No, that’s the answer, it’s easy! It saves time by not having to go look up facts. And, in almost every business environment today time is precious. Because of this, I have seen guesses used by smart people more times than not. For example, how many times have you pared down a list of ideas from a brainstorming session by asking the question of each idea, “Will this work?” Immediately someone shouts out; “No, it will cost too much,” or, “It will take too much time!” Without any facts at all, the facilitator then crosses the idea off the list and moves on to the next idea, “Will this work?” In short, someone guessed the idea would not work and without anyone asking, “Do we know exactly how much will it cost?” the idea is DOA (dead on arrival.) We use guesses more than we might want to admit because it’s easy or we believe someone else knows the facts. Actually they don’t, however their corner office or long title leads us to believe they do know.
So next time you are involved in solving a problem, making a decision or creating a strategy, review your data and verify; “Is this a fact, inference, assumption or guess?” You will be surprised at how many assumptions and guesses you use, and how few facts and inferences you actually employ.
Lou Quinto has been working with companies and their associates internationally for over the past 25 years primarily in the area of critical thinking and communication skills. He is a Master Coach and Keynote Speaker for Action Management Associates in Plano, TX and a Senior Consultant on the Leadership and Organizational Effectiveness team for Executive Development Associates in Oklahoma City, OK. You can read more of his insights on his blog Metacognition or you can contact him at louquinto@gmail.com. Originally from New Jersey, today Lou resides in Indianapolis, IN.
