By Lou Quinto, Executive Coach and Speaker
When my youngest daughter was in kindergarten, she was learning her numbers from 1-100. Her teacher sent home a newsletter with some games we could play with her at home that would help her in this learning quest. One of the games she suggested was “Guess the Number.” This is where you – the parent – think of a number in your head and your child has to guess what number you have selected.
“Alright Tess,” I said “Let’s play a game. (Over the years I have found children -and most adults – prefer to play games, than to do homework!) I am thinking of a number between 1 and 100. Your job is to ask me questions to figure out what that number is.”
She sat down next to me and with a huge smile expressing her excitement said, “OK, dad.”
Putting my hand to my forehead and massaging it as if I were actually rubbing the number into my head I said “O.K. I’m thinking of a number between 1 and 100… Got it…. Go!”
Using information of which she was confident, my daughter began by guessing. “Is it one?” No. “Is it two?” No. “Is it three?” Uhhhh, No!
I soon realized the game which I originally thought would end quickly could painfully involve 100 questions (99 of which would be wrong!) By the time she asked, “Is it 18?” it dawned on me that I didn’t have to use the number “65” that I had chosen. So I shouted, “Yes Tess, it’s 18!” We both clapped and I gave my five year-old daughter a hug for her Mensa-like accomplishment.
She was excited and so proud of her demonstration of superior intellect that she demanded we play again. So I obliged. This time when I told her that I had selected my number her first question was different than before. She didn’t start with, “Is it one?” Instead she asked, “Is it 18?” I realized how quickly she had learned a problem solving process that so many adults use to solve problems in their professional and personal lives, and that is going back to what it was the last time. Sadly, that problem solving process is incredibly ineffective.
When teaching or facilitating I find most people immediately assume that a problem occurred because of the same cause which created the same or similar situation the last time. Whether it’s a software problem, a new product, or a manufacturing process, we often jump to solutions because they worked the last time. Thus, ignoring new data and contradictory evidence. Our experience can actually lead us astray as we compound the problem by seeking data that supports our conclusion – a phenomenon called “confirmation bias.”
In “Guess the Number,” the best first question is the one that eliminates the most possible choices. For example, if we ask, “Is it greater than 50?” With one question, we may not know the answer, but we definitely know what the answer is not, and have immediately eliminated 50% of our problem. Continuing that line of thinking, if we discover the answer is not greater than 50, our next question might be, “Is it greater than 25?” So in just two questions we identify what the answer “is not” and have eliminated 75% of our possibilities. If you continue to play the game out you will be surprised at how “few” questions you need to ask until you get down to just one number from 100 possibilities…
There is power in this type of negative thinking, and when we’re looking for the root cause to problems, asking questions which help identify what it “is not” can have tremendous benefit such as saving time and becoming more productive. When attempting to solve your next problem, here are some tips to try:
1. Ask what the problem could be, but is not. Don’t just describe what the problem is. Spend time identifying what the problem could be but is not.
2. Don’t ask “Why?” Ask “Why Not?” instead. Often we encourage confirmation bias by asking people to justify why they believe something is the root cause of the problem. Instead, ask people to uncover data that explains why a potential cause is not the root cause. If you can’t identify any “why not’s,” then it could be your most likely cause.
3. Seek to eliminate possible causes first, rather than confirm them. Just ask, “Which possible causes can we eliminate because they would cause a problem we are not seeing?” For example, let’s say you can’t open an email. It might be a problem with your internet service provider. But, if another computer in your house uses the same connection and it’s working just fine, then the blame lies elsewhere.
So, turn on your negative thinking. Over the past 25 years, I have seen such thinking save my clients time, energy and money they might have wasted implementing the wrong fixes.
Lou Quinto has been working with companies and their associates internationally for over the past 25 years primarily in the area of critical thinking and communication skills. He is a Master Coach and Keynote Speaker for Action Management Associates in Plano, TX and a Senior Consultant on the Leadership and Organizational Effectiveness team for Executive Development Associates in Oklahoma City, OK. You can read more of his insights on his blog Metacognition or you can contact him at louquinto@gmail.com. Originally from New Jersey, today Lou resides in Indianapolis, IN.
